A tale of two populations: India and Macedonia

Wednesday, 09 November 2011 22:34

Written by Niamh Griffin

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Niamh Griffin explores the different population challenges and opportunities facing India and Macedonia highlighted in a new UN report.

People aged 24 years or younger make up almost half of the world’s population say the authors of the latest United Nations population report.

Researchers for “People and possibilities in a world of 7 billion” talked to people in nine countries - China, Egypt, Ethiopia, Finland, India, Mexico, Mozambique, Nigeria and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia – to find the real impact of this population growth.

The annual report carried out by the United National Population Fund (UNFPA) found “some of these countries are coping with high fertility rates and others are facing rates so low that governments are already looking for ways to increase population size.”

These differences affect urbanisation, ageing populations, labour shortages, over-dependence on income from emigrant populations and health services. 

India and the former Yugoslav Republic Macedonia are dealing with the different challenges posed by a growing population in the former and shrinking population caused by migration to wealthier regions in the latter.

Population changes and challenges in India as discrimination against girls persists

Three of the world's top ten largest “urban agglomerations” are in India: Delhi with 22 million, Mumbai with 20 million and Kolkata with 15.5 million.

Urbanisation is good news for people described as “a growing tribe of young women … urban migrants, well-education and leading middle-class lives, frequently balancing careers and families” said Sajana Jayraj, an NGO worker in Mumbai.

But a professor of economics in New Dehli, Prof. Amitabh Kundu, said increases in the cost of living and decreases in jobs are driving poorer people from the centre to “peripheral settlements”. The infrastructure found in established areas of a city is missing here.

“Internal migration is witnessing a significant departure with increased mobility from urban-to-urban areas,’ said  B. Bhagat, chair of migration at the Institute for Population Sciences. “Rural-to-urban migration is being increasingly undertaken by more educated and higher income groups.”

India's population has been skewed by discrimination against girls and women over many decades. The 2011 census shows that the number of female births to male has dropped to 914 per 1,000 from 927 in 2001. According to the World Bank, nearly one million girls and women went "missing" in India in 2008, due to pre-birth selection or excess mortality after birth. The issue was debated in the Irish Senate on October 26.

UNFPA draws attention to the large southern state of Kerala where “gender-sensitive policies” have resulted in a decline in fertility. Improved access to healthcare and almost-universal education rights for women and girls have meant significant changes in population the authors say. However, a 2006 Lancet study found that, even in Kerala, there is a significant gap between the number of second children that are girls and the number that would be expected.

More than 600 million Indians are aged 24 or younger, and local experts say “the question is how the youth bulge will be handled”. Improving access to education, as with the 66 per cent who complete primary education, is crucial to maintain economic development said C. Chandramouli, Census Commissioner.

Low fertility and high migration in Macedonia

In the Republic of Macedonia (formerly part of Yugoslavia), researchers found that a low fertility rate and high migration to other European countries were stifling economic growth for the population of 2.1 million.  

The Deputy Minister for Labour, interviewed by UNFPA, said employers can spend months searching for staff.

This reflects a global surge in international migration. Figures suggest 214 million people live “outside their country of origin” according to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM).

People living in the mountain town of Rostushe said young men had migrated since the 1960s but now whole families leave. They said private companies have not replaced the closed state companies, so unemployment drives migration.

A financial incentive is now available to women who have a third child to try and raise the national average of 1.4 births. But women quoted in the report say adult education classes and support for entrepreneurs are what they need to earn money.

A young woman is quoted: “Young people think it is better to have fewer children … The economy is bad. But also, we would like to have more time for ourselves.”

However on a positive note, the authors noted that some migrants do return, bringing “skills and self-confidence” back. And powered by a youth literacy rate of 99 per cent, observers are hopeful of change.

Sociologist Antoanela Petkovska said of her students in Skopje: “They are smart young people, they just have to be supported in some of their needs. We really have big possibilities.”

You can watch the world’s population race towards 7 billion and beyond at the UN site 7 Billion Actions.

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